A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that split the nation and caused chaos, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the political, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or campaigners want to engage with even the basics. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unity or the current situation. Each composes two pieces that seek impartiality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and societal figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover flags and symbols, duties, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Debate indicates an recognition of the concept that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government should work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified arguments, he stated. "One side will prevail here and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has got important lessons to learn from the other's arguments."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster should engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
